DAYTONA 500
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season starts on Sunday, February 15 with the 68th running of the Daytona 500 from iconic Daytona Speedway in Daytona International Speedway (Asphalt) in Daytona Beach, Florida (TV—FOX, RADIO—PRN, 2:30 EST/1:30 CST/11:30 PST).
The defending NASCAR champion is Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports) and the 78th season races until November 8 and the running of the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Florida (TV—NBC, RADIO—MRN, 3 EST/2 CST/1 MST/12 PST).
At Kalshi, Motorsport traders in the ’NASCAR Cup Series Champion?’ market are backing Chase Briscoe (86%), defending champion Kyle Larson (18%), followed by William Byron (12%), Denny Hamlin (12%), and 2023 champion Ryan Blaney (11%).
Longshots in the market were Chase Elliott (9%) and Christopher Bell (6%), but this market was still relatively new and had little liquidity (February 11). In the Daytona 500 Winner market, traders are all over the track with Blaney (8%), Byron (8%), and Logano (7%) the favorites.
NASCAR
Following in order three days before The Great American Race were Chris Buescher (6%),
Chase Elliott (6%), Kyle Busch (5%), Kyle Larson ( 5%), Brad Keselowski (5%), Bell (5%), Larson (5%), Austin Cindric (4%), Alex Bowman (4%), Bubba Wallace (4%), Chase Briscoe (4%), Ross Chastain (4%), and Tyler Reddick (4%).
➤Trading Thoughts: It’s still too early to pick a NASCAR Cup Series winner for 2026 without a comprehensive trading market of all drivers on the circuit. Three-time winner Joey Logano (2018, 2022, 2024) and two-winner Kyle Busch (2015, 2019) are always serious contenders.
Byron has won the race the last two years (2024, 2025) and Hamlin won in 2019 and 2020.
We saw unexpected longshot winners of The Great American Race from 2021-2023 as Michael McDowell (100/1), Austin Cindric (66/1 open, 25/1 to 33/1 by race day), and Ricky Stenhouse Jr (35/1 to 40/1) all got the Daytona checkered flag. Daytona 500 Winner Pick: Joey Logano, Yes 7¢
@NASCAR
Kalshi Breaks All-Time Volume Record on SB Sunday
Like Christmas is with retailers, the Super Bowl is always going to be the biggest volume day (or event) for prediction markets and sportsbooks, and Super Bowl LX did not disappoint on Sunday although the matchup and game may have left a lot to be desired in the long run for some.
Still, Kalshi registered a record Daily Notional Volume of $871 million on February 8, 2026, as traders got involved in the various markets relating to The Big Game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California where the NFC’s Seahawks manhandled the AFC’s Patriots, 29-13.
The biggest market at Kalshi was the 2026 Pro Football Champion ($500m), which opened in February 2025 and included all 32 NFL teams. The 2027 Football Champion market is already up and trading and sees new champions Seattle (12%) as the very early Futures market favorite.
With Announcer Mentions ($8.9m), Bad Bunny’s first song ($113.5m) and who would perform with him ($43.7m), which Celebrities would attend the game ($39.8m), Super Bowl MVP ($52.2m), Advertisers ($72.2m), and the conventional Point Spread and Totals markets, among other, Kalshi was near $1 billion in trades for a game which saw no TD for three quarters.
The Super Bowl raking of $871m shattered the previous Kalshi ATH of $543 by more than $328m set Sunday January 25, 2026 when the AFC Conference Championship Game (Patriots-Broncos) and the NFC Conference Championship Game (Rams-Seahawks) were both played.
@kalshidata
Kalshi closed the historic week with approximately $2.8 billion in Total Notional Volume. Although exact numbers aren’t made public, based on the prediction market’s maker-taker fee model (0.07-7%), the company likely churned out between $10-$11 million in fees from the Super Bowl.
Sportsbooks in Nevada saw their lowest volume in a Super Bowl in a decade, with $133,813,230 in wagers, but Silver State sportsbooks have still profited in all but two Super Bowls (1995, 2008) and recorded a respectable hold percentage of 7.4% on Super Bowl LX. Volume is not handle.
Many are quick to blame prediction markets for this number in Nevada but it is a bad comparison. Why? Many reasons. First, tourism in Sin City as well as the entire US has been down these last two years. Second, this wasn’t a great matchup, with no major markets or huge stars involved.
Third, there was little action, stifling in-game trading. There were no TDs for three quarters and no lead changes as the Seahawks led the whole way. Fourth, Polymarket and sports trading on Kalshi are not even legal in Nevada, so assuming that they hurt Silver State volume directly is a stretch.
Not at full steam in the US after its relaunch, Polymarket did relatively well on the Super Bowl ($312m). We will see next year if Kalshi can set a new record and if Polymarket progresses. Super Bowl LXI will be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on Sunday, February 14, 2027.
Who Will Leave President Trump’s Cabinet Next?
At Kalshi in ‘Who Will Leave Trump’s Cabinet Next?’ prediction market, Attorney General Pam Bondi (23%), Epstein Files-implicated Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (19%), and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem (16%) led followed by Lori Chavez-DeRemer (10%),
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (8%), Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (5%), Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr (4%), John Ratcliffe (3%), Susie Wiles (3%), and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (3%) were all getting some attention at Kalshi.
➤Trading Thoughts: Most of the names in this offering are familiar with the exception of Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the second choice of traders. Who is she? She has been Labor Secretary since 2025 in the second Trump administration. So why is she getting so much ‘Yes’ action?
Because the Labor Secretary was accused of engaging in a romantic relationship with a member of her security staff and her top aides, Chief of Staff Jihun Han and Deputy Chief Rebecca Wright, were placed on investigative leave, among other things. Trading Pick: Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Yes 10c
@nypost
Who Will Win Presidency, House, and Senate in 2028?
The 2026 Midterm Elections come Tuesday, November 3, 2026 with the next Presidential Election in the United States scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028, and as it is now, the Republicans [R] in control of all three branches of government, the legislative, executive, and judicial.
Prediction market Kalshi has a power party market called ’2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?’, and traders can buy and sell ‘Yes-No’ shares on the outcome(s) of those future elections in a battle between the Republicans and the Democrats [D].
If this were The Big Game, the Republicans will be wearing the red uniforms and have trumpeting elephants on their helmets with the Democrats clad in blue and having the donkey logo on their helmets. And instead of Gatorade, there will be Pepto-Bismol Dunk Hydration Coolers.
Kalshi
Once all of these elections are completed and we still have a sane country in which to live, one of eight possibilities will have happened. For now, a Democratic Sweep (D-House, D-Senate, D-President) has the most traction at Kalshi with a 38% chance.
Following was Republican Sweep (R-House, R-Senate, R-President (20%) and D-House, R-Senate, D-President (19%). The combinations given lesser probability were D-House, R-Senate, R-President (9%), and R-House, R-Senate, D-President (6%).
Traders were less confident of D-House, D-Senate, R-President (3%), R-House, D-Senate, D-President (3%), and R-House, D-Senate, R-President (3%) results come November of 2028.
@OuiverQuant
When Will Bitcoin Cross $100,000 Again?
Bitcoin has shown lately that the world’s most popular cryptocurrency might not be the blockchain baby holders once loved so much, with Bitcoin (BTC) suddenly trading under the $68,000 mark for the first time since November 2024 as heavy selling continues this week.
The crypto started the year 2026 off closing at $89,788 on January 1, but since then, ₿ has shed another $16K as the concept of “HODL” was really being put to the test in what could only be deemed a bearish market with over $2 billion of long and short positions liquidated.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of AROUND $126,000 IN October of 2025 and looked poised to hit the $150,000 mark before a crypto winter came blowing in and sent the cryptocurrency plummeting back under the $120K, $110K, $100K, and even the $90K level, shocking the always up market.
At Coinbase, traders can bet on ’When Will Bitcoin Cross $100,000 Again?’ and the sentiment there is also very bearish. BTC passing $100K Before July 2026 was at just 27% (Yes 29¢, No 72¢), with Before June 2026 (21%), Before May 2026 (16%), Before April 2026 (7%), and Before March 2026 (3%) all following.
➤Trading Thoughts: This market seems to be one where buying ‘No’ contracts for every single month wouldn’t be a bad idea. The selloff of Bitcoin seems to have intensified in January and early February as traders look for safer investing havens. Trading Pick: Before July 2026, No 72¢
@Bitcoin_Teddy
How Many Oscars Will One Battle After Another Win?
The 98th Academy Awards will air from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California on Sunday March 15 (ABC, Hulu, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST)—hosted by Conan O’Brien again—so let’s continue our weekly look at one of the categories building up to the big night in Hollywood.
In the ‘How Many Oscars Will One Battle After Another Win? ’ market at Polymarket, traders can bet on how many of those gold-plated bronze statuettes—officially called the Academy Award of Merit—will take home at the much-anticipated 2026 awards show.
Leading the Oscars winners pack is 6 (27%) Academy Awards win for the Paul Thomas Anderson directed film (32%), followed by 5 (24%), 7 (23%), ≤3 (14%), 4 (9%), 8 (4%), 9 (2%), and 10+ (1%).
One Battle After Another is nominated for 13 Academy Awards, including the major categories Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Casting, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, and Best Original Score.
Polymarket
➤Trading Thoughts: If you haven’t seen this movie, give it a watch. It is very possible One Battle After Another weeps the major categories with the final award, Best Picture, Best Director (Anderson), Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) , Best Supporting Actor (Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn), Best Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor), and Best Adapted Screenplay (Anderson).
That’s 6 if all come in. In all of the other categories the movie is nominated in, traders are giving little chance for wins six weeks out. But it seems Timothée Chalamet (73%) will top DiCaprio (1%) in the Best Actor race and Del Toro or Penn may lose to Stellan Skarsgård (71%) in the Best Supporting Actor category. Trading Pick: 4 (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay), Yes 10¢
#10 MSU at Wisconsin in Big Road Test Friday Night
Jeremy Fears Jr and #10 Michigan State (20-4, 10-3 in Big Ten) travel to Madison, Wisconsin to dribble balls with Wisconsin (16-7, 8-4 Big Ten) to the Kohl Center on Friday night for a nice Big Ten Conference matchup from America’s Dairyland (FOX, 8 EST/7 CST/6 MST/5 PST).
College Basketball traders at Kalshi are predicting visitors Michigan State (52%) will win against Nick Boyd (20.8 PPG) and host Wisconsin (48%).
➤Trading Thoughts: In Big Ten play last season, Sparty won in East Lansing in Regular Season play (71-62) while Bucky Badger edged MSU in the Big Ten Conference Tournament Semifinal (77-74). The Badgers are 6-4 in the last 10 series meetings, winning the last meeting in Madison in 2024.
The homecourt edge in College Basketball, although not as powerful as it used to be, is still worth researching. Wisconsin is 26-5 at Home in Madtown the last two seasons and with the Badgers needing wins to impress the committee, lean homeboys. Trading Pick: MSU Winner, No 49¢
@BadgerMBB
A Plethora of Great NCAAB Games Coming Saturday
Valentine’s Day may be for lovers, but it’s also for College Hoops lovers as there will be around 70 DI games on Saturday, February 14 including three Top 20 showdowns in #16 Texas Tech at #1 Arizona, #20 Clemson at #4 Duke (ESPN, 12 ET), and #9 Kansas at #5 Iowa State (ABC, 1 ET).
At Kalshi, traders like Arizona (64%) over host Texas Tech (49%) in a non-conference clash from Tucson, AZ, Naismith College Player of the Year candidate Cameron Boozer and Duke (75%) over Clemson (38%), and Iowa State over potential NBA Draft #1 pick Darryn Peterson and Kansas.
➤Trading Thoughts: In the last 11 meetings, Duke is 8-3 vs Clemson, with the Blue Devils winning the last 21 straight in Durham. The Tigers last win on Tobacco Road was January 4, 1995 before Bitcoin and when Bill Clinton was president. Trading Pick: Duke Moneyline, Yes 75¢
@Big12Conference
Inter Hosting Juventus in Serie A Pizza Slice Saturday
League leaders Inter Milan (19-1-4) play host to Juventus (13-7-4) at San Siro (GrassMaster) on Saturday for an Italian Serie A fixture from Milano, Italy (Paramount+, 2:45 EST/1:45 CST/11:45 PST), more important to the Old Lady who is chasing a UEFA Champions League spot in 4th place.
Soccer traders at Kalshi are backing Inter Milan (50%) against Juventus (24%) with a Draw trading at 28% with Inter wins by 1.5 goals at 23% and Over 2.5 goals scored at 51%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Hakan Çalhanoglu, Lautaro Martínez, and Nerazzurri went 6-1-1 in January, only losing to Arsenal in UCL play. In the last 5 series meetings between these two Italian icons, Juve is 2-2-2 (W-D-L) with the home club going an unbeaten 3-2-0 over that span (2023-2025).
This could be a low-scoring 1-0 or 2-0 win by Inter or maybe a 1-1 or 2-2 tie if the hosts Martínez and Juventus’ Kenan Yidiz can get some quality shots on goal. The value seems with a Draw here in the last meeting in Milano ended 4-4 (2024) and 2 of the last 5 ties. Trading Pick: Draw, Yes 28¢
USA Skates with Germany in Olympic Hockey on Sunday
The United States (80%) faces Germany (20%) in Milano Cortina 2026 Men’s Hockey Preliminary Round Group C play at Milano Santaggiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milano on Sunday afternoon (USA, 3:10 EST/12:10 PST). Latvia faces Denmark earlier in the day in Group C (1:10 ET/10:10 PT).
At Polymarket in the Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Bronze Medal Winner market, the USA (22%), Sweden (21%), Finland (21%), Czechia (18%) and Canada (17%) lead, followed by Denmark (13%), Slovakia (13%), Germany (9%), Switzerland (8%), Latvia (5%), France (3%), and hosts Italy (2%).
Polymarket
➤Trading Thoughts: Team USA has been dominant in international Men’s Ice Hockey of late, with the Red, White and Blue going 9-1-0 over its last 10 and outscoring opponents, 49-18 in the process. In the last 3 games vs Leon Draisaitl (Oilers) and Germany, the USA is 3-0-0 (17 GF-6 GA).
With 23 goals in those last three meetings and this the Prelims, expect a high-scoring game with the USA ending with 4-5 goals and Germany 2-3. Trading Pick: United States wins by over 1.5 goals
@Olympics
#3 Houston at #5 Iowa State in Big 12 Battle on Monday
Kingston Flemings and #3 Houston (22-2, 10-1 Big 12) travel to the Hilton Coliseum and Ames, Iowa to face Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson and #5 Iowa State (21-3, 8-3 Big 12, 12-0 home) on Monday night in a great Big 12 Conference matchup (ESPN, 9 EST/8 CST/7 MST/6 PST).
➤Trading Thoughts: In Big 12 play the last two last seasons, the teams have split four games with the Cougars winning last season at home (68-59) and the Cyclones losing at Houston (73-65) and winning at home in 2023-24 (57-53) and in the Big 12 Tourney Final (69-41). So the site matters.
These two are very good in a solid conference that also features #11 Kansas, #13 Texas Tech, and #16 BYU. At home at Hilton Coliseum the last three seasons, the Cyclones are an impressive 45-2, winning the last two meetings with the Cougars in Ames by 9 and 4. Trading Pick: None
@CycloneMBB
UEFA Champions League Knockout Round Playoffs Here
On Tuesday, February 17, the Knockout Round Playoffs stage of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League tourney starts with four Leg 1s, two in Italy, one in France, and one in Portugal as Benfica hosts La Liga giants Real Madrid at Estádio da Luz (Grass) in Lisbon (3 EST/12 PST, Paramount+).
Kylian Mbappé and Real Madrid (5-0-3, 21 GF-12 GA) failed to avoid the Play-off Phase and will now battle Vangelis Pavlidis and Benfica (3-0-5, 10 GF-12 GA) with Leg 2 scheduled for Wednesday, February 25 at Estadio Bernabéu in Madrid (3 EST/2 CST/12 PST, Paramount+).
Kalshi traders like Thibaut Courtois, Jude Bellingham, Real Madrid (56%) to win this opening leg over SL Benfica (27%) with a Draw at 20%. Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals was 28% while the Over 3.5 goals scored was at 43%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Pivotal Matchday 8 saw Benfica beat Real Madrid, 4-2 on a dramatic goal by As Águias GK Anatoliy Trubin (90’+6’) to squeeze Benfica into the Knockout Round Playoffs and set Los Blancos back—where the two legendary Iberian clubs will now meet again twice.
Lifetime in UCL play, SL Benfica is a very surprising 3-1-0 against Real Madrid, outscoring them 15-8 (5.75 GPG). Here, expect some goals to be scored with Mbappé—who scored twice in that 4-2 loss—and Pavlidis likely to tally in Lisbon. Trading Pick: Over 2.5 goals scored, Yes 65¢
@ChampionsLeague