The much-awaited 2026 Academy Awards are finally here this weekend, with Conan O’Brien hosting the ceremonies for a second straight year from the historic Dolby Theatre in Hollywood (Los Angeles), California on Sunday, March 15 (ABC, Hulu, 8 EST/7 CST/6 MST/5 PST).
Presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film every year, the 98th Academy Awards will see the most volume with the most number of trading categories and the most number of evolving exchanges.
There will be 24 Oscars handed out in Hollywood on Sunday, and traders can treat this like the Super Bowl of Movies trading, with Oscars Mentions markets and ‘Who Will Attend the Academy Awards?’ (Polymarket) available. The Best Casting category was added this year to make it 24.
Tinsel town has already hosted all the awards shows, and Lalaland will also have hosted the 2025 World Series in the Fall and is a host city for the 2026 FIFA World Cup this Summer, so neither fires nor Ozempic nor Botox can ruin the city of night, city of night, city of night, woo, come on.
Let’s finish up our look at most of the 2026 Academy Awards markets at The Prediction Report and handicap the aforementioned Mentions and ‘Who will be at the Academy Awards?’ markets to help prepare you for Sunday night’s event if you are a serious or casual trader or just a movie fan.
Will One Battle After Another Win the Best Picture Oscar?
The list of accolades for the Paul Thomas Anderson-directed film One Battle After Another is pretty amazing, with the 2025 action-thriller heading in as the solid favorite to win the Best Picture award at the 98th Academy Awards in Hollywood on Sunday night.
At Polymarket, One Battle After Another (76%) is way ahead of second-traded Sinners (20%), with
Hamnet (2%), Marty Supreme (1%), and Sentimental Value (1%) not being given any chance to win the biggest award of the night by traders at the platform.
The numbers were similar at Kalshi (75%) and Robinhood (75¢), so expect this movie loosely based on the Thomas Pynchon novel Vineland (1990) to win yet another award—and the most coveted one when the stars gather in Los Angeles this weekend.
With Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio de Toro, Sean Penn, and Best Supporting Actress favorite Teyana Taylor, the cast on this is next level. If you haven’t seen it yet, it is worth the time and a fun watch.
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a “buy ‘Yes’ now” on favorite One Battle After Another, still trading at a reasonable price (76¢), translating to a 24¢ profit every contract with 100 shares winning $24, 1,000 costing $780, winning $240 ($1,020 return). Trading Pick: One Battle After Another, Yes 76¢
2026 Academy Awards Preview: Best Actor Winner
One big category race at the Oscars where the prediction market masses don’t seem so sure yet is the ‘Oscar for Best Actor? where Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) has steamed (50%) past long-time leader Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) at 40% at Kalshi (48% at Polymarket on March 11).
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another, 6%), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent, 6%), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon, 3%) are also nominees in this prestigious category but this is simply a two-man race now and a good trading opportunity if you can pick the right actor.
DiCaprio led in this Entertainment market in September before Chalamet ran out to a lead of as much as 78%-12% lead in the Winter over Leo before Jordan started to surge from 3.2% to 36% (March 4).
And this is a very liquid market with over $10 million volume at Kalshi and over $7 million at Polymarket, 11 days before the ceremonies in the vibrant city named (in Spanish) after the Virgin Mary, Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles ("Our Lady the Queen of the Angels").
➤Trading Thoughts: Why so much late money on Jordan here? Jordan just won the Actor Award at the Actor Awards in Los Angeles on Sunday, March 1 and the buzz and momentum seems to be with the 39-year-old Santa Ana, California product.
All final ballots for the Academy Awards were due by 5 pm PST on Thursday, March 5, 2026, so all the votes are in and it is just a matter of PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)—the renowned firm who has done it for 60 years—counting them. Trading Pick: Michael B. Jordan, Yes 48.5¢ (Polymarket)
KPop “Golden” Lock to Win the Best Original Song Oscar?
In the Best Original Song Winner category at the Academy Awards, the prediction markets are telling us that the only thing left to do is to award the famous little statuette to the song “Golden” (87%) from the movie KPop Demon Hunters on Sunday evening from Lipstick City.
“I Lied To You” from Sinners (13%), “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (<1%), “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (<1%), and “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (<1%) are just grateful to be nominated in this category. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez won this award at the 2025 Oscars.
➤Trading Thoughts: “Golden” (‘Yes’) at 92¢ was almost in bonding territory, 11 days (March 4, now 87¢ 4 days) before the Oscars. Along with Best Picture (One Battle After Another) and Best Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor), a must in an Oscars portfolio. Trading Pick: “Golden,” Yes 92¢
Who Will Attend the Oscars? Market Open for Trading
The 2026 Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood will be packed with stars and industry bigwigs on Sunday (ABC, Hulu, 8 EST/7 CST/6 MST/5 PST), and Polymarket is serving up a somewhat creative ‘Who Will Attend the Oscars?’ market, much like we saw in Super Bowl LIX.
Expected to be at the Academy Awards on Sunday night are Leonardo DiCaprio (99%), Michael B. Jordan (99%), Timothée Chalamet (99%) and girlfriend Kylie Jenner (94%), Emma Stone (97%), Zendaya (85%), Hudson Williams (68%), Nicole Kidman (62%), and Margot Robbie (55%).
Also on the potential list of attendees at the annual award show from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) at Polymarket, Ryan Gosling (51%), Connor Storrie (37%), comedian Kevin Hart (16%), and singer Taylor Swift (10%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Kylie Jenner will be there with squeeze Chalamet, so she’s a bond at this point. Taylor Swift has to be tired of Super Bowls and awards shows and the limelight and wants a year to plan a future with Travis Kelce. Trading Picks: Kylie Jenner, Yes 95.9¢, Taylor Swift, No 92.1¢
What Will be Said During the Oscars? Mentions Market
In the ‘What Will be Said During the Oscars?‘ Mentions market for the Academy Awards hosted by Conan O’Brien on Sunday night, traders can buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts on specific words or phrases to be said during the upcoming scheduled broadcast on ABC.
The rules for this market say that AI-generated audio or video content count toward a ‘Yes’ resolution as do pre-recorded clips aired with people speaking. Commercials airing during the broadcast will not count.
Here are the words and/or phrases in Polymarket’s Academy Awards Mentions market offering:
What Will be Said During the Oscars? (%)
➤Trading Thoughts: This market doesn’t have as many entries as one would expect, and looks for words host O’Brien, award recipients in speeches, and taped clips may have. Chalamet 5 or more times seems like gold as does Netflix (95¢). Trading Picks: Netflix Yes 94¢, Chalamet 5+, Yes 60¢
An Enticing Slate of NBA Games Dribbling on Saturday
The 2025-26 NBA Regular Season continues separating the wheat from the chaff, and on Saturday there are seven games on the slate including four televised ones in the Hornets at Spurs (Prime Video), Wizards at Celtics (NBA TV), Nuggets at Lakers (ABC), and Kings at Clippers (ESPN).
If you could pick just one game to watch from this menu, it would be upstart Charlotte (33-33, 14-17 Road) at San Antonio (48-17, 25-6 Home) at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas (Prime Video, 3:30 EDT/12:30 PDT.
Why? A couple of reasons. First, this game matters for both with the spurs fighting for playoff positioning in the western Conference and the buzzing Hornets finally having a good season after all those shitty years and fighting to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. Keep hope alive.
You’ll also get to see two of the NBA’s best young players on display in SA’s Victor Wembayama (23.4 PPG, 11.1 RPG) and Charlotte rookie Kon Kneuppel (19.2 PPG, 5.5 APG) who has overtaken former Duke teammate Cooper Flagg in the 2026 Rookie of the Year race (53%-46%)
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Vallejos in Vegas on Saturday
Sin City is the site of UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Vallejos at the META Apex, in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday (Paramount+, 5 EDT/4 CDT/3 MDT/2 PDT) where Featherweights Josh Emmett (19-6-0) and Kevin Vallejos (17-1-0) will get it on in the octagon in the Main Event.
In a Women’s Strawweight bout, Amanda Lemos (15-5-1) fights Gillian Robertson (16-8-0) while Ion Cuțelaba (19-11-1, 1 NC) takes on Oumar Sy (12-1-0) in a Light Flyweight matchup with unbeaten Marwan Rahiki (7-0-0) facing Harry Hardwick (13-4-1) in a Featherweight contest.
In the ‘Who Will be UFC Featherweight Champion at the End of 2026?’ Futures exchange at Polymarket, Alexander Volkanovski (32%) is the trader’s lean in the weight class (up to 148 pounds), followed by Jean Silva (19%), Lerone Murphy (19%), and Movsar Evloev (17%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Australian Volkanovski doesn’t officially have anyone lined up to fight next, but expect the 37-seven-year-old to line up a big opponent after beating Diego Lopes (27-8-0) for a second straight time by UD on January 31, 2026 in his native Australia at UFC 325.
Rumors have Alexander “The Great” fighting top contenders Murphy or Evloev for his Featherweight belt possibly in London, England sometime later this year and the result in that potential bout may seal the Featherweight market. Trading Pick: Alexander Volkanovski, Yes 44¢
F1 in China on Sunday For the Second Race of New Season
The 2026 Formula One is underway and the circuit heads Down Under this weekend for the second race of the season, the Heineken Chinese Grand Prix from the Shanghai International Circuit in Shanghai, China very early on Sunday (Apple TV, 3 am EDT/2 CDT/12 Mid PST).
In the first race of the 2026 Formula One season in Australia on March 6, the Australian Grand Prix, we saw George Russell (Mercedes) win the checkered flag with teammate Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) finishing in 2nd place followed by Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) in 3rd place.
At Kalshi for the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix, traders are strongly backing George Russell (52%) over Kimi Antonelli (14%), Charles Leclerc (14%), Lewis Hamilton (11%), Max Verstappen (4%), Lando Norris (3%), and Oscar Piastri (3%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Oscar Piastri won the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix, finishing ahead of his McLaren-Mercedes teammate Lando Norris (2nd place) and Mercedes’ George Russell (3rd place), and we could see these three again fighting to get on the podium in Shanghai on Sunday.
But with prices (and maybe expectations) falling some on legend Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT) and traders predicting Russell to win the Drivers’ Championship this season, now is the time to stick with the Flying Dutchman. Trading Pick: Max Vertsappen, Yes 8¢
Aston Villa at Old Trafford in EPL Showdown on Sunday
The 2025-26 English Premier League season heads toward the Spring with a two-club race for the top four or five club race for the remaining two or three UEFA Champions League spots in the EPL with Aston Villa (51 points) and Manchester United (51 points) in the thick of that race.
On Sunday, Aston Villa (15-6-7) heads to historic Old Trafford (Grass) to face Manchester United (14-9-5) on Sunday (USA Network, Telemundo, 10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT) in a game important to both the Lions and the Red Devils for a number of psychological and financial reasons.
At Kalshi, Soccer traders like Bryan Mbuemo, Casemiro and host Manchester United (57%) over Ollie Watkins and Aston Villa (22%) at the Theatre of Dreams with a Draw priced at 23%.
When these two met at Villa Park on the first day of Winter, the Villans won 2-1 in Birmingham as spearhead Morgan Rogers had a brace for the hosts and the game-winner at the 57’ mark. It was the first time Aston Villa had beaten MUFC in the last 7 meetings (1-5-1, 6 GF-13 GA).
➤Trading Thoughts: At Old Trafford, the Red Devils are 5-0-0 the last 5 vs Villa (11 GF-3 GA) in all competitions (EPL, FA Cup). MUFC has more lifetime Wins against the Villans (92) and has scored more goals against them than any other club (324). Trading Pick: Manchester United, Yes 57¢
NASCAR Cup Series in Sin City on Sunday Afternoon
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series will see the fifth race of the season run with the 2026 Pennzoil 400 from the Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Asphalt) in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, March 15 (TV—FS1, RADIO—MRN, 4 EDT/3 CDT/2 MDT/1 PDT).
The season’s first three races in Daytona, Florida (Daytona 500), Hampton, Georgia (Autotrader 400), and Austin, Texas (DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix) saw Tyler Reddick make NASCAR history by winning the first three races of the Cup season for his Michael Jordan-owned 23XI Racing Team.
After the fourth race of the season at Phoenix (Straight Talk Wireless 500) last week on March 8, the circuit will stop in Sin City where we saw Josh Berry get his first career win at the 2025 Pennzoil 400, beating out Daniel Suárez (2nd) and Ryan Preece (3rd) for the checkered flag.
In the Pennzoil 400 Winner market at Kalshi, traders are giving Kyle Larson (16%) the best chance of winning, followed by Christopher Bell (13%), Denny Hamlin (13%), William Byron (12%), Ryan Blaney (9%), Tyler Reddick (9%), Chase Briscoe (6%), and Joey Logano (6%).
Longshots for the race in Sin City are Chase Elliott (5%), Ross Chastain (5%), Bubba Wallace (4%), Carson Hocevar (4%), Brad Keselowski (4%), Chris Buescher (3%), Kyle Busch (3%), Ty Gibbs (3%), last year’s winner in Las Vegas, Josh Berry (2%) and Connor Zilisch (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Predicting what young men in stock cars who are driving around in circles for three hours is less handicapping and more guessing, even for the best NASCAR bettors/traders. Thirty-six to 40 drivers start, only one wins. Trading Picks: Bell 13¢, Hamlin 12¢, Reddick 9¢
NCAAB Bracket Time: Big Dance Selection on Sunday Night
Besides being the Ides of March, the night of the 2026 Academy Awards, and Eva Longoria’s birthday, Sunday is also the day we see 5 major conference tourney championship games and the announcements of the Women’s and Men’s NCAA DI Tournament brackets, aka Selection Sunday.
The 2026 Women’s NCAA College Basketball Tournament will be revealed on Sunday, with the 68-field team being unveiled on ESPN (8 EDT/7 CDT/4 PDT). The tourney tips off with the First Four on Tuesday-Wednesday, March 17-18, Current unbeaten #1 UConn are defending champs.
The 2026 Women’s NCAA College Basketball Tournament Final Four will be held at Arizona State University at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix on Friday, April 3 (Final Four) and the 2026 Championship Game on Sunday, April 5 (CBS, 9 EDT/8 CDT/7 MDT/6 PDT).
The 2026 Men’s NCAA College Basketball Tournament will come out an hour earlier on Sunday, with the 68-team field on CBS (6 EDT/5 CDT/3 PDT). Like the women’s tourney, the Big Dance starts with the First Four on Tuesday-Wednesday, March 17-18, Florida is the defending champ.
The 2026 Men’s NCAA College Basketball Tournament Final Four will be held at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis, Indiana on Saturday, April 4 (Final Four) with the Championship Game scheduled for Monday, April 6 (ABC, 3:30 EDT/2:30 CDT/1:30 MDT/12:30 PDT).
On Sunday, we will see the Ivy League Conference Championship Game from Ithaca, NY (ESPN2, 12 EDT/9 PDT), the SEC Conference Championship Game from Nashville, TN (ESPN, 1 EDT/10 PDT), and the A-10 Conference Championship Game from Pittsburgh, PA (CBS, 1 EDT/10 PDT).
Also on tap, the American Conference Championship Game from Birmingham, Alabama (ESPN2, 3:13 EDT/12:15 PDT), and the Big Ten Conference Championship Game from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois (CBS, 3:30 EDT/12:30 PDT) before the two Selection Sunday shows.
➠In the next The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the start of the Men’s and Women’s Basketball tourneys, Will Delcy Rodríguez stay in power in Venezuela in 2026?, New Zealand's ban on PM’s, the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame nominees, Will there be a NewJeans comeback?, the MLB AL and NL Rookie of the Year races, and four Leg 2 previews from the UEFA Champions League Round of 16. Thanks for subscribing.